Russia’s Secret Moves: Shh! Don’t Tell! Uncovering the Super-Power of Rare Earth
This is an opinion piece: it is well-reasoned and empirically sound but, it is opinion. My humble opinion!
In the intricate web of global geopolitics, battlegrounds are often unseen, hidden, subtle, wraith-like, and charted not in territories but in influence, alliances, personality cults, and critical resources. From the global West and the Russo-Ukrainian war to current power plays exhibited by various actors in the Sahel region and the intricate maze of the Indo-Pacific, age-old battle lines are being redrawn. These battle lines might be underpinned by the Holy Grail-like potential of rare earth elements (REEs) and rare earth metals (REMs).
At the centre of this emerging matrix stands Russia with its grand Eurasianist and imperialistic vision, a vision aiming to transcend continents and dictate the contours of the Twenty-First Century. Rare earth materials punch far above their weight in the grand chess game of global power politics as we move into the future. They are democracy’s Kryptonite in the hands of nations like Russia, Iran, and North Korea; those who control rare earth materials will have the military, technological and financial means to dominate the world. Read on!
The Indo-Pacific Nexus
Historically, the locus of geopolitical power has meandered through continents, and currently, it is firmly shifting towards the Indo-Pacific. This region, burgeoning with vibrant economies and marked by critical maritime chokepoints, emerges as the crucible for the next epoch of geopolitics. The likes of China, with its maritime assertiveness and Belt and Road Initiative, North Korea, with its nuclear ambitions, have intensified the West’s gaze towards this region. However, therein lies a caveat. This laser focus on the Indo-Pacific might just be the smokescreen Russia needs for its endeavours elsewhere, such as the Sahel. Although there are many benefits to Russia in expanding its influence in The Sahel, rare earth materials might be the catalyst that cements Russia’s Euraisianist goals and catapults it into the stratosphere of global power.
Let me use an analogy here: as we sit in a car, we can see the twister coming toward us and plot a course to safety; what we do not anticipate is the sinkhole that is beneath us. Because we do not see the danger, we do not change our course and… we can use a little strategic foresight to determine how that scenario ends!
Russia’s Eurasian Dreams
Long before the term ‘Eurasian’ became a geopolitical buzzword, it was deeply entrenched in Russian political thought. Today, its resonance has only grown, amplified by thinkers like Aleksandr Dugin, whose magnum opus on geopolitics envisions a Russia that is not just a bridge between East and West but the fulcrum of a vast continental expanse. Russia’s new foreign policy document isn’t merely a testament to this aspiration; it is a roadmap. The influence of Dugin’s thought is palpable, presenting a Russia that aspires to shape and lead the Eurasian narrative, challenging Western hegemony and shifting the global balance of power.
The Sahel: A Geopolitical Pivot
The Sahel, seemingly remote, is anything but peripheral in this chess game. With potential reserves of REEs and REMs, its importance has become magnified. The West’s receding shadow in this region provides a vacuum, one which Russia is keen to fill, driven by dual goals — curtailing Western influence and potentially securing a treasure trove of critical resources. By strategically positioning itself in the Sahel, in my opinion, Russia isn’t aiming for regional influence but is seeking to fortify its global standing, particularly by exacerbating the West’s REM and REE shortage.
Strategic Vulnerabilities and Alliances
It’s not only in the Sahel where Russia is advancing its pawns. Alliances are being forged, strengthened, and diversified. Its relationship with Iran manifested through a military partnership and the influx of drones like the Shahed-186, is just the tip of the iceberg. Simultaneously, its ties with China and North Korea, countries united in challenging Western ascendancy, are deepening. This complex web of relationships serves Russia in multiple ways, from military advancements to creating a strategic buffer against the West.
The REEs and REMs Quandary
Access to rare earth materials is critical for military advancement, both for offensive and defensive capabilities. The global West is at a severe disadvantage; China’s stranglehold on REEs and REMs exports, coupled with Russia’s potential manoeuvres in the Sahel, accentuates the West’s vulnerabilities. These minerals are no longer merely industrial assets; they are military-strategic gold mines. They underpin modern defence technologies, green energy, and even aspirations in the realm of space. The West’s challenge is multidimensional: counter the erosion of military stockpiles due to the unceasing and strategic onslaught of Russian drone and missile attacks on Ukraine, navigate the era of high technology and an emerging space race, and ameliorate a crippling resource drought.
Resource Strategy: Beyond the Immediate Battlefield
In the ever-evolving theatre of modern warfare, a critical subtext emerges regarding the strategic strain on resource supply chains. For many, the munitions supplied by the West to Ukraine might seem like mere tools of combat. However, the truth lies in their composition. These munitions, often the by-products of cutting-edge engineering, are intimately tied to the intricate network of REEs and REMs. And these rare earth elements go beyond the confines of academic interest — they are the very foundation upon which modern military technologies stand.
Moreover, this war on resources isn’t solely about the materials themselves but also their cost-effectiveness. Consider the Shahed-186 drone. For the price of deploying just one, the West spends millions to replenish the advanced air defence ammunition used to neutralise it. It begs the question: Why would Russia deploy these, fully aware they’re likely to be shot down? The answer might lie in the realm of strategic exhaustion. While the West continually expends its advanced munitions, stockpiles dwindle, and soon the strategic resources needed for replenishment might become scarce. Russia, with its tactical acumen, might not be targeting only Ukraine’s defences. Instead, every missile and drone strike could have a dual purpose: weakening Ukraine’s immediate defences and depleting the West’s precious REE and REM-intensive munitions, driving them towards a resource drought. It’s a grandmaster’s move in geopolitics. By strategically pressuring the West in this manner, Russia not only challenges Ukraine’s sovereignty but also threatens the West’s long-term technological and military supremacy. In a world marked by rapid technological advancement, where these resources bolster green energy, technological innovation, and aspirations in space exploration, their depletion carries ramifications that transcend the immediacy of the current conflict.
Space and the Final Frontier
Space, humanity’s final frontier, now stands as the ultimate arena for geopolitical competition. The journey, both symbolic and literal, hinges on REEs and REMs. If Russia and China come to dictate terms in this domain, the West’s extraterrestrial aspirations could well be grounded unless strategic recalibrations are made. If Russia gains the upper hand in the space race, history suggests that they will not use that to the benefit of humanity but as a projection of Russian subjugating power.
Conclusion
The twenty-first-century geopolitical landscape is intricate and highly nuanced. Territories, alliances, personalities, and resources intertwine, creating a complex tapestry that is in perpetual flux. The West, while aligning itself with the emerging Indo-Pacific dynamic, cannot afford to lose sight of Russia’s Eurasian aspirations and its responsibilities in the North Atlantic.
For Russia, the playbook is clear — meld Eurasianist thought with pragmatic geopolitics, leverage alliances, and capitalise on the global REM and REE narrative whilst utilising the West’s proxy war in Ukraine to diminish Western military stockpiles. In this grand strategic game, every move, every alliance, and every resource is pivotal, and it is existential to the ‘free world’.
I could go on ad infinitum, but that is your job now: what does the next decade of geopolitics entail? Will democracy still exist?
What I Think
Democracy, as we know it, is facing an existential threat. As the next election cycles approach, I fear that democratically elected officials may become preoccupied with their re-election rather than addressing the pressing issues at hand. This very nature of democracies, where the constant need to appease voters can sometimes overshadow long-term solutions, is both a strength and a weakness. In stark contrast, autocratic states, like China or Russia, display a certain political agility; their leaders act decisively without the looming concern of upcoming elections. Yet, such agility often comes at the cost of individual freedoms.
Compounding this scenario is the undeniable rise of far-right movements across the globe. What strikes me is not just their nationalist or ultra-nationalist compositions, but also the platforms fuelling their growth. Social media, teeming with memes, deep fakes, and orchestrated disinformation campaigns by both state and non-state actors, accelerates the proliferation of these ideologies.
On the chessboard of geopolitics, every pawn, knight, and rook plays a critical role. As nations grapple for dominance, the very nature of this board is in flux. However, one thing remains crystal clear — the game is underway, and the stakes are monumental. We, and the democratic values we cherish, must emerge victorious; the alternate outcome is nothing short of extinction.
Recommendations:
Holistic Engagement: The West must engage Russia holistically but also unflinchingly, to understand its Eurasianist endeavours, its fears, and its ambitions whilst all the while attempting to recalibrate its Indo-Pacific strategy to align with globally accepted norms and the rule of law.
Diversify Resource Dependency: Exploring and finding alternative REM and REE sources is imperative to maintaining the status quo in the technological age. Simultaneously, investments in research and innovation can mitigate dependency, and they need to happen now! The low rate of exploration, juxtaposed with two significant discoveries, makes the Sahel a potential jackpot in the rare-earth department. From my perspective, it’s a gamble I’d take: I’d go all in to gain the upper hand in the Sahel. The risk-reward framework is highly biased towards the reward side in this case. Rare earth materials are the strategic nexus and a pivotal asset in the geopolitical chess game of power. They are the linchpin in the cornerstone of Russia’s power play to create a Eurasian superpower with them at the helm. We must take that helm!
Strategic Diplomacy: Beyond military posturing, astute diplomacy can yield rich dividends. The West must reinvigorate old alliances and consider forging new ones to stay ahead in the strategic existential ballet for rare earth materials. Without wishing to be alarmist, the West’s share of rare earth resources is minuscule compared to that of more authoritarian anti-West nations. The West must also avoid repeating past mistakes with certain diplomats making promises that were not within their mandate (I’m looking at you, James Baker and Helmut Kohl) (Russia’s belief in NATO ‘betrayal’ — and why it matters today, 2023). This mistake continues to manifest its costs and is one reason behind the opinion that the global West betrayed Russia on NATO guarantees.
References
- The Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation. (2023). Retrieved 9 August 2023, from https://russiaeu.ru/en/news/concept-foreign-policy-russian-federation
- Aleksandr Dugin’s Foundations of Geopolitics. (2023). Retrieved 9 August 2023, from https://tec.fsi.stanford.edu/docs/aleksandr-dugins-foundations-geopolitics
- Russia’s belief in Nato ‘betrayal’ — and why it matters today. (2023). The Guardian. Retrieved 9 August 2023, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/12/russias-belief-in-nato-betrayal-and-why-it-matters-today
