Asymmetric Warfare: Democracy’s Greatest Threat in the Current Geopolitical Climate
Introduction
In the ever-evolving landscape of global politics, democracy stands as a pillar of modern civilization. However, the current geopolitical maelstrom has nurtured a threat that undermines the very foundation of democratic principles. This article aims to shed light on the phenomenon known as asymmetric warfare and its implications for democracy, highlighting its unprecedented challenges in today’s world.
Understanding Asymmetric Warfare
Defining Asymmetric Warfare
Asymmetric warfare refers to a strategic approach employed by state and non-state actors or weaker entities to exploit the vulnerabilities of stronger opponents. It involves using unconventional tactics, weapons, and non-traditional strategies to level the playing field. Unlike conventional warfare, which relies on force-on-force engagements, asymmetric warfare focuses on exploiting weaknesses within an opponent’s military, political, or social systems. For example, asymmetric warfare was used in the 2016 US elections in an attempt to install a preferred Russian-friendly candidate as President: twelve members of the Russian intelligence community were indicted by the FBI in connection with interference in that election (Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2023).
The Threat to Democracy
Asymmetric warfare poses a significant threat to democratic societies by targeting their core values and institutions. Non-state actors, terrorist organizations, and rogue states often exploit the open and inclusive nature of democracies to wage ideological battles, sow discord, create polarization and foster tribalism within the population. They employ tactics such as propaganda, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and even acts of terrorism to undermine public trust in democratic processes and institutions. And again, we have to mention the 2016 US election interference and the election of Donald Trump, who is currently facing multiple indictments: One of which concerns US national security. Second to his indictments is the kind of documents he illegally held: HCS (human intelligence sources); these human assets’ lives are at risk, and their usefulness is nullified; Then, to top it off, he had documents of US nuclear secrets. As we can infer from the evidence, the Russian’s preferred candidate was and still is a threat to American democracy (Security, Goodman, Hendrix, Eisen, & Fried, 2023). And then there is Brexit: Did Russia have a hand in it? Evidence suggests that it may have, though not directly, but through social media and Russian propaganda news sites (CSIS, n.d.). The examples mentioned illustrate the real threat of asymmetric warfare on democracy.
The Strategies Employed in Asymmetric Warfare
Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
One of the primary strategies employed in asymmetric warfare is the use of propaganda and disinformation campaigns. By disseminating false information or distorting facts, malicious actors aim to manipulate public opinion and create divisions within democratic societies. These campaigns exploit social media platforms and online channels to amplify their reach and impact, often goading online groups to act out in the real world like the anti-Ukrainian protests happening in many major European cities currently (DW. 2023): “from the wire to the weeds” (Donovan, Dreyfuss, & Friedberg, 2022).
Cyberattacks and Information Warfare
In the digital age, the threat of cyberattacks, information warfare, and AI (Artificial Intelligence) have grown exponentially and become powerful tools in the art of asymmetric warfare. There have been 79 known incidents in June 2023 alone, as noted by the IT Governance Blog cited below (IT Governance 2023). Furthermore, AI is an up-and-coming golden child of asymmetric warfare, with convincing deepfake videos leading the charge (Appel, M., & Prietzel, F. 2022). State-sponsored hackers, criminal organizations, and even lone individuals with advanced technical skills target critical infrastructure, government systems, and private entities. Their objective is to disrupt normal operations, steal sensitive information, or create chaos within the targeted nation.
Hybrid Warfare
Hybrid warfare is another strategy employed in asymmetric conflicts, blending conventional and unconventional tactics to achieve strategic objectives. It involves a combination of military force, irregular warfare, political manipulation, economic coercion, and other non-traditional methods. Hybrid warfare aims to exploit the vulnerabilities and openness of democratic societies, making it challenging for conventional military forces to respond effectively.
For instance, acting as agent provocateurs to inflame anti-NATO groups and encourage protests: or, in the current geopolitical nightmare, Russian secret service agents infiltrating groups and staging anti-Ukrainian protests in various European cities (DW, 2023). It is difficult to deploy military assets when your country is inflamed by information warfare against the place where you need to deploy your forces. In fact, ignoring the population can lead to political suicide in democracies.
The Implications for Democracy
Undermining Trust and Confidence
Asymmetric warfare erodes trust and confidence in democratic institutions and processes. By sowing doubt and spreading disinformation, malicious actors seek to delegitimize democratic governments, elections, and the rule of law. This erosion of trust weakens the social fabric of democratic societies and creates fertile ground for extremism and authoritarian tendencies.
Challenging National Security
As discussed above, asymmetric warfare poses significant challenges to national security. The unconventional nature of these threats makes them difficult to detect and counter effectively. Traditional defence mechanisms designed for conventional warfare may prove inadequate against the sophisticated strategies employed by state and non-state actors. Democracies must adapt their security frameworks to effectively address the multi-faceted challenges posed by asymmetric warfare.
Impact on Global Stability
The implications of asymmetric warfare extend beyond individual nations. They have the potential to disrupt global stability and exacerbate existing conflicts, as seen in the Russo-Ukrainian war (DW, 2023). Asymmetric conflicts often spill across borders, fuel regional tensions, and destabilize entire regions. A case in point is Ireland, where anti-refugee protests have escalated to violence, with refugees facing physical assaults and their belongings being burnt. This heightened hostility towards refugees is leading to ‘near anarchy’ on the streets and posing challenges to law enforcement (O’Keeffe, L. 2023). Such destabilizing behaviour is reflected in many European cities, demonstrating the potential global impact of asymmetric warfare. Therefore, addressing the threat of asymmetric warfare necessitates political will, international cooperation, and collaboration among democratic nations. Additionally, it requires citizens to be proactive in understanding the tactics used against them and develop critical thinking and fact-checking skills.
The Way Forward
Addressing the threat of asymmetric warfare requires a comprehensive and multi-faceted approach. Democracies must invest in intelligence capabilities, cyber defences, and information warfare expertise to counteract the tactics employed by malicious actors. Furthermore, enhancing public awareness and media literacy is crucial in combating propaganda and disinformation campaigns.
Collaboration among democratic nations is paramount to effectively address the global implications of asymmetric warfare. Sharing intelligence, coordinating responses, and implementing joint initiatives can bolster the collective resilience of democratic societies against these threats.
In conclusion, asymmetric warfare represents a formidable challenge to democracy in the current geopolitical maelstrom. The strategies that state actors, non-state actors, and rogue nations employ to undermine democratic values and institutions are myriad and require swift, decisive action. By recognizing the nature of this threat and adopting proactive measures, democracies can safeguard their foundations and maintain the principles that underpin our modern society.
The general population can play a crucial role in countering such tactics, but they must be vigilant and understand that they could be targeted for manipulation. Developing strong critical thinking and fact-checking skills is a practical step towards this goal.
References
DW. (2023, August 5). Russia staging protests for anti-Ukraine propaganda — report. Retrieved July 8, 2023, from https://www.dw.com/en/russia-staging-protests-for-anti-ukraine-propaganda-report/a-65544741
IT Governance. (2023, July 4). List of data breaches and cyber-attacks in 2023. Retrieved July 8, 2023, from https://www.itgovernance.co.uk/blog/list-of-data-breaches-and-cyber-attacks-in-2023
Appel, M., & Prietzel, F. (2022). The detection of political deepfakes. Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 27(4), zmac008. https://doi.org/10.1093/jcmc/zmac008
Donovan, J., Dreyfuss, E., & Friedberg, B. (2022). Meme Wars: The Untold Story of the Online Battles Upending Democracy in America. Bloomsbury. Retrieved July 8, 2023, from https://www.amazon.co.uk/Meme-Wars-Battles-Upending-Democracy/dp/1639732063/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1688789145&sr=8-1
Federal Bureau of Investigation. (2023). RUSSIAN INTERFERENCE IN THE 2016 US ELECTIONS. Retrieved July 8, 2023, from https://www.fbi.gov/wanted/cyber/russian-interference-in-2016-u-s-elections
Security, J., Goodman, R., Hendrix, J., Eisen, N., & Fried, A. et al. (2023). The Trump Indictment: What Top Intelligence Experts Are Saying — Just Security. Retrieved July 8, 2023, from https://www.justsecurity.org/86935/the-trump-indictment-what-top-intelligence-experts-are-saying/
O’Keeffe, L. (2023). Gardaí face ‘near anarchy’ amid protests against asylum seekers. Retrieved July 8, 2023, from https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-41059481.html
CSIS. (n.d.). Did Russia influence Brexit? Retrieved from https://www.csis.org/blogs/brexit-bits-bobs-and-blogs/did-russia-influence-brexit
